Fertilizer Prices Are Still High This Fall. Make Every Pound Count.

Fertilizer prices surged again this year. Now that fall application season is here, they are holding at a high level.

The spike started in the Middle East. Conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz cut off a region that supplies nearly a quarter of the world's urea exports. Qatar suspended urea and ammonia production after its facilities were damaged, and Iran stopped making ammonia. The World Bank's fertilizer price index rose more than 12% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching its highest level since October 2022. In April, urea prices topped $850 per metric ton, up 80% since February. The World Bank expects its fertilizer index to finish the year more than 30% higher, with only partial relief in 2027.

U.S. retail prices have since leveled off, but at a high level. In DTN's survey for the second week of September:

Seven of the eight major products are higher than a year ago. Fertilizer is already one of the largest line items on the farm. USDA estimates it was about $226 per acre for U.S. corn at the 2022 peak, roughly a quarter of total production costs. With prices this high, nitrogen lost to leaching, runoff or the air costs more than ever.

You can't control the global market. You can control how much of what you buy reaches the crop.

Fall nitrogen: the soil tells you when

Fall application spreads out spring workload and often lets growers lock in pricing. It also carries the most risk of losing nitrogen, and timing is the biggest factor.

Extension agronomists, including those at Iowa State University, recommend waiting until soil temperatures stay below 50°F and keep cooling before applying fall nitrogen. The measurement is typically taken at a 4-inch depth. Below 50°F, soil microbes slow sharply in converting ammonium to nitrate. Ammonium stays on soil particles. Nitrate moves with water and can leach out or be lost to the air before next year's crop can use it.

The key word is "stay." A single cold morning in early fall doesn't count. If soils warm back up after you apply, conversion to nitrate starts again. Depending on location, soils usually cool enough anywhere from late October to late November. A mild fall, which is possible in the northern U.S. with this year's strong El Niño, could push that window later.

Guidance also differs by fertilizer form and soil type. Most extension recommendations limit fall nitrogen to anhydrous ammonia, often with a nitrification inhibitor, on well-drained, medium- to fine-textured soils. Sandy and poorly drained soils are generally better suited to spring or split applications. Check your state's recommendations.

Soil moisture and rain: the other half of the equation

Temperature isn't the only way nitrogen gets lost:

• Saturated soils lose nitrogen to the air through denitrification.
• Heavy rain right after application can wash nitrogen and phosphorus off fields and into waterways, especially on sloped ground.
• Very dry soils can keep anhydrous from sealing properly, which lets ammonia escape.

Knowing your soil moisture before you roll, and checking the rain forecast for the days after, helps you choose a window that keeps the nutrients in place.

How Davis helps you time every application

EnviroMonitor puts the data behind these decisions in one place, measured in your fields rather than at a station miles away:

• Soil temperature sensors show when your ground has cooled below 50°F and is staying there
• Soil moisture sensors show when soils are too wet, too dry or ready for application
• On-site rainfall and weather data, plus forecasts in the Mobilize app, help you avoid applying right before a washout
• Custom alerts tell you when conditions reach your thresholds, so you don't have to check every day

The same system supports irrigation scheduling, frost alerts, growing degree days and pest models during the season, so it pays off well beyond fall fertilizer.

Growers are already moving this way. In AEM's 2025 State of Agricultural Weather Challenges Report, 79% of growers said they use on-site weather stations or sensors, up 7 points from 2023. 30% named soil moisture monitoring as the tool they most want to add.

Buy smart, apply smarter

With fertilizer prices high, the savings come from applying at the right time. Measuring soil temperature and moisture in your own fields is a low-cost way to make sure more of what you buy reaches the crop.

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